U.S. equities are wrapping up the first quarter in grand style. The QQQ, which tracks the NASDAQ 100, is zeroing in on a 20% gain for the quarter, as I write this. We saw a huge rally in January 2023 and strong Januarys usually suggest a strong year ahead. Based on our Q1 performance, it’d be hard to argue at this point. There’s more technical work ahead, which is to be expected after the completion...
After a bear market decline of nearly -50%, the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has rallied over +60% out of the October low. The long-term picture still looks promising with the weekly PMO rising steeply above the zero line. But let’s look in a shorter-term time frame to see if there any more immediate problems. This one-year daily chart helps us look more closely at the current technical conditions. (1) To begin, price is hitting the top...
In this edition of the GoNoGo Charts show, Alex and Tyler take a top-down approach to the technical market environment following the SVB collapse and the Fed’s 25bps hike. They use a GoNoGo Cross Asset Heat Map to help understand the intermarket factors that could impact equity performance. Treasury rates ($TNX), the US dollar (UUP), and oil (USO) are all falling in NoGo trends. Very recently, gold (GLD) and Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rallied into Go trends....
This is a follow-up to a piece published a week ago on Nvidia’s (NVDA) strong run following its stellar earnings report. It follows NVDA’s price action, but from another angle, using the lesser-used Ichimoku Cloud indicator. Revisiting NVDA’s Price Action NVDA began outperforming its fellow semiconductor industry counterparts in the middle of January. Why? Its role in AI earned it a spotlight amid the ChatGPT and Bard craze that virtually dropped a disruption bomb on...
On this week’s edition of Stock Talk with Joe Rabil, Joe explains the best form of MACD divergence, showing how to use multiple timeframes to increase your odds of success with this powerful MACD setup. Using Monthly, Weekly and Daily timeframes, he covers the setup and why it is a good one, then delves in the entry pattern. After that, he covers the stock symbol requests that came through this week. This video was originally...
Well, it might be a little early to anoint Intel (INTC) a leader, but there’s no denying a significant breakout in the chip stock above key price resistance. On November 15, 2022, INTC opened at 30.72 and the stock hasn’t seen an open or close above that level since. There were intraday highs 30.79 on February 3rd and 31.00 on March 17th, but both of those breakout attempts ultimately failed. Yesterday, however, volume accelerated and...
We have written lots of Dailys, not to mention talked a lot in media, about the significance of the 23-month moving average. Here are some past comments: What has happened in the last 2 years? A bullish run in 2021 based on easy money. Inflation running hotter than most expected. The banks were caught off guard, and by 2022, the party was over. So, that begs the question of why this year’s 23-month moving average is one...
In this week’s edition of Trading Simplified, Dave delves into why traders need patience, especially during less-than-ideal conditions. He discusses the fact that patience “gets used up” and why we must be vigilant not to give into temptations such as boredom, wants, needs, and other extraneous influences. He then discusses market timing, with a focus on the TFM 10% system’s potential in the Qs. This video was originally broadcast on March 29, 2023. Click anywhere on...
A driver who goes with the flow of traffic and adjusts to traffic conditions usually gets places in good time and safely. Similarly, a good trader who trades in sync with price action is likelier to make better trades and preserve more capital. The key: Recognize price movement and take advantage of the move. When you see a clear move in one group of stocks, identify the top performers and make your way into that...
Last week, I tweeted: I believe the #commodities prices in food softs $DBA have bottomed. $GLD-well those who know me-that I pointed out bottomed months ago. $SLV now outperforming. That tells you something. Maybe even #oil. Get ready for the Commodities Super Cycle. If you are not following me @marketminute on twitter, you should consider doing so, as I often make such comments or point out specific trades. Technically, the charts were already setting up...
