Top Investing Today
  • Investing
  • Politics
  • Stock
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
  • Investing
  • Politics
  • Stock
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
No Result
View All Result
Top Investing Today
No Result
View All Result
Home Stock

What Would a Top in Semiconductors Mean for the S&P 500?

BoldThemes by BoldThemes
August 31, 2024
in Stock
0
What Would a Top in Semiconductors Mean for the S&P 500?
0
SHARES
6
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

After Nvidia (NVDA) dropped after earnings this week, investors are once again reminded of the importance of the semiconductor space. I think of semis as a “bellwether” group, as strength in the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) usually means the broader equity space is doing quite well. Today, we’ll look at a potential topping pattern forming for the SMH, what levels would confirm a top for semiconductors, and what weakness in this key group could imply for our equity benchmarks.

Presenting the Dreaded Head-and-Shoulders Top Pattern

Ralph Edwards and John Magee, in their classic text Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, laid out the analytical process for defining a head-and-shoulders top. I’ve found that any price pattern like this consists of three important phases.

First, we have the “Setup” phase, where the price action begins to take on the appearance of a certain phase. This is when your brain tells you, “This is definitely a head and shoulders topping pattern.” In this case, we’re looking for a significant high surrounded by two lower highs, creating the appearance of a head and two shoulders.

We can clearly observe the setup phase on the chart of the SMH, with the June and July highs forming a somewhat nontraditional, but still valid, head. The lower peaks in March and August complete the picture. It’s worth noting here that, in each of those peaks, we can see a bearish engulfing pattern, serving as a wonderful reminder for longer-term position traders: ignore candle patterns at your own risk!

What Would Confirm This Topping Pattern for Semis?

But the setup phase only means there is a potential pattern forming here. Next we need the “trigger” phase, where the price completes the pattern by breaking through a key trigger level on the chart. For a head-and-shoulders top, that means a break below the neckline, formed by drawing a trendline connecting the swing lows between the head and two shoulders.

Using the bar chart above, that would suggest a neckline around $200, over $40 below Friday’s close. Another school of thought involves looking at closing prices only, for a cleaner perspective and more simple measurements.

Using closing prices, we get an upward-sloping neckline which currently sits just below the 200-day moving average around $215. In either case, until we break below neckline support, this is not a valid head-and-shoulders topping pattern. The third phase, which I call the “confirmation” phase, involves some sort of follow-through beyond the breakout level. This could mean another down close after the break, or perhaps a certain percentage threshold below that support level. And once all three phases are complete, then we have a valid topping pattern.

Gauging Potential Broad Market Impact

So let’s assume that semiconductors do indeed complete the topping pattern. What would that mean for the broader equity landscape?

As of Friday’s close, the SMH is up about 38.2% year-to-date. That compares to the S&P 500 (SPY) at +18.9%, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) with +16.2%, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) at +12.1%. So semiconductors have certainly been a stronger leadership group in 2024. But what about since the July market peak?

Now we can see that, while the S&P 500 is almost back to its July peak, the Nasdaq is still 4% below that day’s close and semis are a full 11% below the market peak in July. And the equal-weighted S&P 500 is actually above its July peak already, speaking to the strength that we’ve observed in non-growth sectors off the early August low.

There is no doubt that semiconductors are looking a bit vulnerable after Nvidia’s earnings this week. But given the strength that we’re seeing outside of the semiconductor space over the last two months, weakness in the SMH does not necessarily mean weakness for stocks. Remember that it’s always a good time to own good charts!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Previous Post

Charting Forward: Opportunities You Can Seize in September

Next Post

Should You Buy the Dip in NVDA?

BoldThemes

BoldThemes

Next Post
Should You Buy the Dip in NVDA?

Should You Buy the Dip in NVDA?

  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest
The Connectivity Standards Alliance Product Security Working Group Launches the IoT Device Security Specification 1.0

The Connectivity Standards Alliance Product Security Working Group Launches the IoT Device Security Specification 1.0

March 19, 2024
Israel says UN ‘deceiving’ world over aid delays to Gaza

Israel says UN ‘deceiving’ world over aid delays to Gaza

March 28, 2024
Gold and Silver Set to Smash Records: Could 2024 Be Their Biggest Year Yet?

Gold and Silver Set to Smash Records: Could 2024 Be Their Biggest Year Yet?

May 17, 2024
Conservative backlash to Israel aid bill could force Johnson to seek Democrat support again

Conservative backlash to Israel aid bill could force Johnson to seek Democrat support again

February 6, 2024

Israel hostage deal in doubt as Hamas adds demands, US envoy calls terms ‘unacceptable’

0
Amid growing criticism of Biden foreign policy, experts credit wins while leaving room for improvement

Amid growing criticism of Biden foreign policy, experts credit wins while leaving room for improvement

0
Conservative backlash to Israel aid bill could force Johnson to seek Democrat support again

Conservative backlash to Israel aid bill could force Johnson to seek Democrat support again

0
Precision Manufacturing For Sensitive Equipment With CNC Machining

Precision Manufacturing For Sensitive Equipment With CNC Machining

0

Israel hostage deal in doubt as Hamas adds demands, US envoy calls terms ‘unacceptable’

May 31, 2025

Iran condemns Austria over report on advanced nuclear weapons program

May 31, 2025

ROBERT MAGINNIS: 9 signs Beijing’s Taiwan invasion may be imminent

May 31, 2025

Hamas agrees to release 10 more hostages

May 31, 2025
Enter Your Information Below To Receive Trading Ideas and Latest News

    Your information is secure and your privacy is protected. By opting in you agree to receive emails from us. Remember that you can opt-out any time, we hate spam too!

    Recent News

    Israel hostage deal in doubt as Hamas adds demands, US envoy calls terms ‘unacceptable’

    May 31, 2025

    Iran condemns Austria over report on advanced nuclear weapons program

    May 31, 2025

    ROBERT MAGINNIS: 9 signs Beijing’s Taiwan invasion may be imminent

    May 31, 2025

    Hamas agrees to release 10 more hostages

    May 31, 2025
    • About Us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions
    • Contact

    Copyright © 2024 Topinvestingtoday.com. All Rights Reserved.

    No Result
    View All Result
    • Investing
    • Politics
    • Stock
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Copyright © 2024 Topinvestingtoday.com. All Rights Reserved.