Racing ahead of the semiconductor pack, Nvidia (NVDA) appears to be edging toward the upper regions of a parabolic curve.  What Does This Mean for NVDA Stock Price? It’s a sign of confidence coming off a strong Q4 2022 earnings performance on top and bottom lines. NVDA surprised Wall Street, beating analyst EPS estimates by 8.53% (the largest since the first quarter of 2021). We’ll address the “parabolic curve” part a little later. What’s Driving...

Small-caps are leading the way lower and breadth indicators are showing some serious deterioration under the surface. Large-caps are holding up for now, but keep in mind that weakness in small-caps foreshadowed the January 2022 peak in SPY. Today’s article will compare price charts for SPY and IWM, and then look at the bearish signal in the Composite Breadth Model. Small-caps are leading the way lower because the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the Russell...

On this week’s edition of Stock Talk with Joe Rabil, Joe explains how to use the higher timeframe to help confirm a 1-2-3 change in trend on the lower timeframe. In many cases, the cross of key MA lines will coincide with this potential reversal signal. Joe then covers the stock symbol requests that came through this week, including MSFT, SLV, and more. This video was originally broadcast on March 23, 2023. Click this link...

With the recent crash of the Regional Banking ETF (KRE) some may wonder if there were adequate technical warnings ahead of the crash. Yes, there were. To clarify, we’re looking for reasons not to be long this ETF. (1) To begin, last April the KRE 50EMA crossed down through the 200EMA (a Death Cross), giving an LT Trend Model SELL Signal. We view mechanical signals as information flags, not action commands, so this informed us...

The Fed raised rates by 25 bps. The decision was unanimous. The terminal rate projection is unchanged at 5.1%. The FOMC statement modifies guidance: “The committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate.” My first tweet @marketminute this morning before the market opened: @marketminute: I feel pretty certain Powell goes 25. Announces theyre willing to keep raising at that rate as jobs strong, economy ok & banks arent in a credit crisis. However, as...

All trades, no matter how well thought out, have the potential to end in a loss. Therefore, we must manage our expectations and be willing to accept risk and fear as part of the trading process. In this week’s edition of Trading Simplified, Dave discusses ways to deal with these inescapable neurological and psychological aspects of trading. He also discusses how current less-than-ideal current conditions could be contributing to your angst. For the “Methodology In Action,”...

SPX Monitoring Purposes: Long SPX on 2/6/23 at 4110.98. Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78. Long Term SPX Monitor Purposes: Neutral. The market is a little messy, but I’ll do my best to make it clear for you. The top window is the SPY. We posted the TRIN close (first #) and TICK close (second #) on the days they reached panic levels. The light-shaded pink areas are where the majority of panic TICK and...

The end is at hand. Bears, just surrender now. Since the mid-June low (where I called the S&P 500 bottom), we’ve seen the fed funds rate jump from 1.00% to 4.75%. Of course, all we’ve heard since then is what? Don’t Fight The Fed Well, since that first 75 basis point hike on June 16th, the S&P 500 is UP, not down. We’ve had four 75-basis point hikes, two 50-basis point hikes, and two 25-basis...

The market buzz can be quite contagious. “Market didn’t collapse on the bank news-must be bullish.” “Yellen will save the day buy making sure depositors are safe.” Yellen herself: “We have an economy that is performing very well.” And of course, we all know that tomorrow is the big FOMC day — .25% to a pause on the table. Meanwhile, far away but not SO far away, we have the bromance between Putin and Xi....

In this episode of StockCharts TV’s Sector Spotlight, I talk you through my assessment of what’s going on in terms of sector rotation and how that connects with my observations of the S&P 500 chart. Following that assessment of current market behavior, I then go a little outside the scope of the show to address how umpiring field hockey games at the highest level in the Netherlands introduced me to the concept of the “ladder of...