Top Investing Today
  • Investing
  • Politics
  • Stock
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
  • Investing
  • Politics
  • Stock
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
No Result
View All Result
Top Investing Today
No Result
View All Result
Home Stock

Here’s Why A Short-Term Top Might Be Nearing

BoldThemes by BoldThemes
May 2, 2025
in Stock
0
Here’s Why A Short-Term Top Might Be Nearing
0
SHARES
5
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

I feel like the short-term risk is turning once again and I’ll explain why in my analysis below. Please don’t misunderstand. I suggested a bottom was in place a few weeks ago and I LOVE what has been happening in terms of manipulation/accumulation and I LOVE the fact that we were able to quickly regain both the 20-day EMA and 50-day SMA on our major indices.

However, here are the four major indices and where they’re at currently on their respective charts and their next key overhead resistance levels:

Dow Jones

We did manage to close just above the 50-day SMA here, but the Dow Jones still appears vulnerable to me. Given the fact that the S&P 500 has room to run up to what is now major price resistance at 5782, I could see the Dow Jones moving a bit higher to challenge the late-March high at approximately 42750. That could serve as a neckline.

S&P 500

20-day EMA resistance? No problem, went right through. Gap resistance 5500? Ditto. 50-day SMA resistance. Ditto. This rally has been impressive. Key levels of price resistance have failed and this tells me that we’re not going to violate the low at 4835. It’s set in stone, in my opinion. There are still a couple of key resistance levels on the S&P 500 that we’ll have to deal with next week. The first will be the early-April rebound attempt that failed near 5700. Today’s intraday high was 5700. The next one, however, will be the biggest on the chart and that’s where we last failed in late March – at 5782.

NASDAQ 100:

Looks similar to the S&P 500, but I did add the RSI to this chart. During downtrends, RSI 60 tends to be rather big resistance. We see many rallies fail at or near that level. The NDX just crossed RSI 60….barely. At our Friday intraday high, the NASDAQ 100 pulled within 100 points (less than 0.5%) of the late-March high near 20250. I don’t know if we turn here or not, but I do know the risks are elevated.

Russell 2000:

The 197 level offered great price support on multiple occasions, so when we see a heavy-volume breakdown like we saw in early April, we should recognize how important it is to clear that same price resistance on the way back up. We did so on Friday with gusto. I absolutely LOVE the sudden accumulation that’s taken place in the IWM. I believe that will result in a much larger move at some point later this year. But are we due for another round of selling first, perhaps at upcoming price resistance levels marked above? We’ll soon find out.

Be careful ahead, especially if a rising-volume, reversing candle prints on our major indices sometime next week.

Sentiment

Check out this 5-day SMA of the equity only put call ratio ($CPCE):

We just hit 0.55, showing the most complacency we’ve seen in the past 5 weeks or so. Extreme low readings have previously marked corrections and/or cyclical bear markets and that was one key topping indicator that I discussed back in January/February. Other prior moves down to 0.55 have also resulted in short-term tops. I thought the current .55 reading was worth pointing out for this reason.

Seasonality could also play a role. Early May (through the 5th) tends to provide historical tailwinds, but the middle part of May (6th through 25th) has a history of being rather challenging. The 5th is Monday, so given everything I’ve discussed above and knowing that our bullish seasonal window could soon be closing, watch for a potential reversing candle as a sign to think about reducing risk (covered calls, S&P 500 puts for insurance, moving to cash, etc.).

I’m not ready to definitively call a short-term top here, but I do want to point out that the SHORT-TERM risks of being long right now are growing. Do with that what you may.

If you’d like to follow more articles of mine, please CLICK HERE to join the tens of thousands who’ve already subscribed to our FREE EB Digest newsletter. There is no credit card required and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Happy trading!

Tom

Previous Post

Stocks In Focus This Week: Palantir, Uber, and Coinbase

Next Post

Stock Market Wrap: Stocks Rebound as May Kicks Off with a Bang: What Investors Should Know

BoldThemes

BoldThemes

Next Post
Stock Market Wrap: Stocks Rebound as May Kicks Off with a Bang: What Investors Should Know

Stock Market Wrap: Stocks Rebound as May Kicks Off with a Bang: What Investors Should Know

  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest
The Connectivity Standards Alliance Product Security Working Group Launches the IoT Device Security Specification 1.0

The Connectivity Standards Alliance Product Security Working Group Launches the IoT Device Security Specification 1.0

March 19, 2024
Israel says UN ‘deceiving’ world over aid delays to Gaza

Israel says UN ‘deceiving’ world over aid delays to Gaza

March 28, 2024
Gold and Silver Set to Smash Records: Could 2024 Be Their Biggest Year Yet?

Gold and Silver Set to Smash Records: Could 2024 Be Their Biggest Year Yet?

May 17, 2024
Conservative backlash to Israel aid bill could force Johnson to seek Democrat support again

Conservative backlash to Israel aid bill could force Johnson to seek Democrat support again

February 6, 2024

Biden’s strange use of teleprompter in donor’s home infuriated supporters, dashed expectations

0
Amid growing criticism of Biden foreign policy, experts credit wins while leaving room for improvement

Amid growing criticism of Biden foreign policy, experts credit wins while leaving room for improvement

0
Conservative backlash to Israel aid bill could force Johnson to seek Democrat support again

Conservative backlash to Israel aid bill could force Johnson to seek Democrat support again

0
Precision Manufacturing For Sensitive Equipment With CNC Machining

Precision Manufacturing For Sensitive Equipment With CNC Machining

0

Biden’s strange use of teleprompter in donor’s home infuriated supporters, dashed expectations

July 9, 2025

Supreme Court lets Trump’s ‘wrecking ball’ federal job cuts proceed while legal fight continues

July 8, 2025

‘Who wouldn’t want it?’: Netanyahu open to receiving stealth bombers, bunker-busters from US

July 8, 2025

TikToker knocks Harris’ ‘weird’ take on never released interview: ‘Not good’

July 8, 2025
Enter Your Information Below To Receive Trading Ideas and Latest News

    Your information is secure and your privacy is protected. By opting in you agree to receive emails from us. Remember that you can opt-out any time, we hate spam too!

    Recent News

    Biden’s strange use of teleprompter in donor’s home infuriated supporters, dashed expectations

    July 9, 2025

    Supreme Court lets Trump’s ‘wrecking ball’ federal job cuts proceed while legal fight continues

    July 8, 2025

    ‘Who wouldn’t want it?’: Netanyahu open to receiving stealth bombers, bunker-busters from US

    July 8, 2025

    TikToker knocks Harris’ ‘weird’ take on never released interview: ‘Not good’

    July 8, 2025
    • About Us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions
    • Contact

    Copyright © 2024 Topinvestingtoday.com. All Rights Reserved.

    No Result
    View All Result
    • Investing
    • Politics
    • Stock
    • Economy
    • Editor’s Pick

    Copyright © 2024 Topinvestingtoday.com. All Rights Reserved.